Forecast Evaluations in Meat Demand Analysis
نویسندگان
چکیده
This article offers a comparison of short-term forecasting ability of five demand systems with an application to U+S+ meat consumption+ Four static demand systems ~AIDS, Rotterdam, AIM, and DGM! and a dynamic Vector Error Correction Model ~VECM! are considered+ We tested the equality of mean square forecast errors+ We also investigated the possibility of forecast encompassing among competing models+ In general, the dynamic VECM model performed best, followed by the simple causal DGM model+ Among three static systems, the AIDS model slightly leads the competition+ Furthermore, this article provides the first evidence in literature on whether imposition of homogeneity restrictions on a cointegration space can improve the forecast accuracy of a VECM model: it does when it holds+ @EconLit citations: Q10; C53# + © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc+
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